Early Blood Testing for Viral Measurement During Initial Diagnosis Can Predict Long COVID

Researchers have identified several factors that can be measured using blood tests at the initial point of COVID-19 diagnosis that anticipate if a patient is likely to develop long COVID.

These “PASC factors” identified by researchers at the Institute for Systems Biology (ISB; Seattle, WA, USA) are the presence of certain autoantibodies, pre-existing Type 2 diabetes, SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in the blood, and Epstein-Barr virus DNA levels in blood. Additionally, the researchers found that mild cases of COVID-19, not just severe cases, are associated with long COVID. They have also suggested administering antivirals very early in the disease course to potentially prevent some Post Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) symptoms.

A significant portion of people who contract the SARS-CoV-2 virus – some estimates suggest more than 40% – suffer chronic effects known as PASC, commonly referred to as long COVID. PASC symptoms include fatigue, brain fog, the loss of taste and smell, shortness of breath, and more. For their study, the researchers collected blood and swab samples from 309 COVID-19 patients at different time points to perform comprehensive phenotyping which was integrated with clinical data and patient-reported symptoms to carry out a deep multi-omic, longitudinal investigation. A key finding from the study deals with viral load, which can be measured near diagnosis to predict long COVID symptoms.

In addition, researchers found the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) – a virus that infects 90 percent of the human population and is normally inactive in the body after infection – is reactivated early on after SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is significantly associated with future long COVID symptoms. The team also found that PASC is anticipated by autoantibodies (which associate with autoimmune diseases like lupus) at diagnosis, and that as autoantibodies increase, protective SARS-CoV-2 antibodies decrease. This suggests a relationship between long COVID, autoantibodies and patients at elevated risk of re-infections.

“Identifying these PASC factors is a major step forward for not only understanding long COVID and potentially treating it, but also which patients are at highest risk for the development of chronic conditions,” said ISB President, Dr. Jim Heath. “These findings are also helping us frame our thinking around other chronic conditions, such as post-acute Lyme syndrome, for example.”

“Long COVID is causing significant morbidity in survivors of COVID-19, yet the pathobiology is poorly understood,” said Dr. Jason Goldman, an infectious disease expert at Swedish. “Our study pairs clinical data and patient-reported outcomes with deep multi-omic analyses to unravel important biological associations that occur in patients with PASC. Certain findings such as the low cortisol state in patients with long COVID have potential to translate rapidly to the clinic. Our results form an important foundation for the development of therapeutics to treat long COVID.”

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