New Test Predict Success of IVF Treatment

A new forecast model can predict the outcomes of a subsequent round of in vitro fertilization (IVF) for those women who have already gone through one cycle, claims a new study.

Researchers at Stanford University School of Medicine (CA, USA) retrieved data from 1,676 IVF cycles performed at Stanford Hospital (CA, USA) between 2003 and 2006 and identified 52 factors--such as patient age, levels of certain hormones, number and quality of eggs, and individual characteristics of each embryo--that influence a woman's chance of having a baby. They then developed a computer model that sorted patients into subsets defined by deep phenotyping similar clinical characteristics to predict live-birth probabilities in a subsequent round of IVF. According to the researchers, the new test not only integrates more data into its methodology, but also measures a different outcome: live birth instead of pregnancy.

When testing their model with data from a separate set of more than 600 IVF treatments performed in 2007-08, the researchers determined that the model's predictions were significantly different from the age-based predictions in 60% of patients. Interestingly, out of this group, more than half were assigned greater odds of having a baby than what age-related data indicated. When further verifying the accuracy of the new method, the researchers were able to determine that their model predicted outcomes with 1,000 times more accuracy than age-based guidelines. The study was published early online on July 19, 2010, in the Proceedings of the [U.S.] National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

"Our findings show that the first IVF cycle can provide quantitative, customized prediction of the live birth probability in a subsequent cycle. This concept is radically different from the current paradigm, in which age is a major predictor,” said study coauthor Lynn Westphal, M.D., an associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology. "For some of the patients, we may be able to reassure them and help them move forward and do another cycle if they have good odds. For other patients, if they're in a poor category, we'll help them move on to consider better options.”

IVF is a process by which egg cells are fertilized by sperm outside the womb, and is a major treatment in infertility when other methods of assisted reproductive technology have failed. The process involves hormonally controlling the ovulatory process, removing eggs from the woman's ovaries, and letting sperm fertilize them in a fluid medium. The fertilized egg (zygote) is then transferred to the patient's uterus with the intent to establish a successful pregnancy. The first successful birth of a colloquially termed "test tube baby,” a girl named Louise Brown, occurred in 1978 in Oldham (United Kingdom).

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Stanford University School of Medicine
Stanford Hospital